Dennis M. Howard
The 2016 election: What happened?
By Dennis M. Howard
June 21, 2017

I recently completed an in-depth demographic analysis of the 2016 Election, and the results indicate that abortion – not healthcare, jobs, and taxes – remains the defining issue of our times.

Movement for a Better America has just issued the study as a special report drawing on my 50+ years of experience in media and market research and over 20 years tracking abortion trends.

The study shows that despite partisan differences on other issues, abortion is clearly the issue that defines the difference between Republican red states and Democratic blue states.

For example, Hillary Clinton won 64% of the states with the highest number of abortions while Donald Trump won 73% of the states with the lowest number of abortions. It's as if they each won landslides in two different countries.

In fact, the red state/blue state division is almost as sharp as the north/south division during the U.S. Civil War. It certainly underscores the bitter fracas currently going on in Washington.

The good news is that we may have passed the worst phase of that division.

The underlying long term demographic trends I identified are nearly impossible to change. Indeed, they are literally baked into the demographic pie. And they indicate that most of America has had more than enough of abortion on demand.

What decided the election was the demographic impact of high abortion rates on Democratic minority voting groups on one hand, and the outpouring of support for Donald Trump by the Evangelicals and traditional pro-life voters on the other.

For the first time in years, the Evangelicals and the pro-life movement finally had the political strength to decide a national election. The Catholic vote, by contrast, gave a weak 52% majority for Donald Trump.

Trends in minority voting patterns by contrast predict tough times ahead for the Democrats. The report identifies "significant shifts in minority and blue collar voting that threaten the block voting patterns that have sustained the Democrats as far back as Lyndon Johnson."

It suggests that "if these shifts continue, liberal Democrats risk losing power for years to come." And, again, the big driver is abortion.
    The report points out, "By aggressively supporting abortion on demand, the Democrats have been aborting their own minority voting base for decades. . . If not for an estimated 36 million Black and Hispanic abortions, Hillary Clinton would have won the 2016 election in a huge landslide."
By aggressively supporting abortion on demand for years, the Democrats have in effect been "hoist on their own petard," And yet Roe v. Wade happened under Nixon.

The report also underscores the genocidal character of Planned Parenthood and the abortion industry by their targeting of Blacks and Hispanics for more than 50% of all abortions.

"Abortion has become a holocaust against the young – eliminating 30% of the entire generation under age 50 – with calamitous effects on the future of the U.S. economy. Genocidal abortion is on its way to becoming the slavery issue of the 21st Century."

In fact, abortion is "the great divide" that separates Red States and Blue States:

  • Donald Trump won 18 out of 21 states (or 86%) with low abortion rates, while Hillary won only two states in this group – New Hampshire and Maine – both largely White liberal states with low abortion rates.

  • Clinton and Trump split the next 18 states with moderate abortion rates (ranging from 12.5 for Vermont to 19.2 for Georgia), winning 9 states each. Here's where Trump won such key states as Ohio, Louisiana, Texas, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Michigan – all states with large minority populations.

  • At the high end of the abortion scale, Clinton won 11 out of the 12 states (or 92%) with the highest abortion rates (ranging from 20.5 to 40.0). Trump won only one of these states – Florida – and that by a narrow 1% margin. And that was amazing because Florida has substantial Black (16%) and Hispanic (22.5%) populations.

These are voting patterns you will never hear about from the mainstream media because it would highlight the deepest division in America today – our national divide over abortion. . . . Altogether, half the states have just 10% of all of America's abortions, while 37% are distributed across 19 mid-range states. Just 6 states have 53% of all abortions.

It all adds up to over 60 million abortions to date with the damage focused heavily on Black and minority populations. How genocidal is that? Well, that's...

  • Equal to 30% of our entire population under age 50.

  • 4,350 times as many Blacks as were killed by lynching since the Civil War.

  • More than 10 times the number of Jews killed in the Nazi holocaust.

  • Equal to the population of our 85 largest cities. It's as if all 85 cities had been nuked.

How can that not meet the definition of a holocaust when some of the worst genocides of all time pale by comparison?

Moreover, the damage has been inflicted disproportionately on Blacks.

For Blacks, the loss from abortion is 21 million out of a total population of 43 million. Or more particularly, 21 million out of a younger population of just 30 million under age 50 – a huge percentage of that age group.

I challenge anyone not to call this genocide – or to claim that it was somehow a blessing on the Black community.

Unfortunately for the Democrats, the demographic – and the voting – impact of this is something that will take decades to change. And on that basis I predict a decline in the Democrats as a national party that could last for another 30 to 40 years.

As a former Democrat myself, the best and perhaps only hope for the Democrats to remain a national party is to abandon their ideological commitment to abortion. However, that will require a major revolt against the left wing ideologues who currently control the party. And, even then, it could take decades to happen.

© Dennis M. Howard


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Dennis M. Howard

(Dennis M. Howard passed away on May 6, 2021. His obituary can be read here.

Dennis M. Howard is founder and president of The Movement for a Better America, a non-profit, pro-life educational organization. Before starting MBA in 1995, he had a long and successful career in journalism and creative marketing. He has been writing since 1950, when he helped launch The Sun Herald of Kansas City, America's last attempt at publishing a Catholic daily... (more)


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