Paul Cameron
Homosexuality overestimated again?
New census data contradicts popular surveys
By Paul Cameron
March 11, 2023

Family Research Report (3/2/23)

    1. Introduction

    2. New Census Data

    3. Accounting for the Rise of LGBT Claims

    4. Liberal Ideology and LGBT Go Hand-in-Hand

    5. Conclusion

    6. References


1. Introduction

In most recent demographic surveys, about 20% of respondents under the age of twenty-five claim to be LGBT. Indeed, Gallup recently reported that 7.2% of Americans and 19.7% of young adults are LGBT. That means a whole bunch of young adults believe the fantasy that your sex can be changed and society will do just fine if everyone acts on their own sexual desires. But does it mean a fifth of young adults engage in homosexuality? While homosexuality has seemingly increased, fewer than 5% of U.S. adults may actually practice it each year. New evidence suggests 1) there are far fewer homosexuals than commonly thought, and 2) "bisexuals" often do not engage in homosexuality!

2. New Census Data

We may need to junk, or at least seriously modify, what we think we "know" about sex. Canada and Britain recently released findings from their 2021 censuses. Only 3-4% of their tens of millions of respondents claimed to be LGB+. Compared to most other surveys, these figures are way too small. But a key factor is almost never discussed in popular media: response rates. These rates unlock the key to why what we have been led to believe is so uncertain.

While the news is full of poll results, response rates — that is, the proportion of people who respond to surveys from the set of those selected as the target sample — has fallen precipitously over the last few decades. Well-known polls often get 6-9% response rates, thus missing 91-94% of their intended sample, which usually numbers in the thousands. In 2015, for instance, and response rates have fallen further since, the Pew Foundation reached adults in 62% of households it called, but only 9% responded (WSJ 2016).

In addition, there is a considerable difference between answering a required census form and a private opinion survey. The census, in theory, must be answered (with the implication that lies might be prosecuted), while private polls depend upon your willingness to donate your time and honesty. Answering truthfully is easiest, but what people claim on surveys (even the census) can seldom be verified. All we "know" is what respondents say, and only then from those who agree to participate. Even 40 years ago, in FRI’s 1983 sexuality survey, homosexuals seemed considerably more apt to respond than non-homosexuals (e.g., 7% of our respondents claimed at least some adult homosexual activity). If LGBTs continue to be more apt to respond today, they might be distorting what most polls suggest is "the truth."

The Canadian and British 2021 censuses were based on 97% response rates — far, far more apt to be representative of the population than non-census polls and surveys. Only 3-4% of adults in either country said they were non-heterosexual vs. Gallup’s 7.2% for the U.S. in 2022. The breakdown of the UK census found 3.2% claimed to be LGB+, 89.4% to be heterosexual, and 7.5% who did not answer the question. Again, if homosexuals are more apt to respond to surveys and/or to answer questions about sexual feelings/experiences, 3.2% might be close to the upper limit of British homosexuals. This is far fewer than the 10% to 15% private surveys suggest (and politicians fear). Of course, some of the 89.4% may have tried homosexuality or changed their sexual preferences. But 97% response rates for millions instill far more confidence in these Canadian and British estimates than 6-15% response rates for thousands in other polls.

3. Accounting for the Rise of LGBT Claims

So how do we account for a fifth of young people regularly claiming on recent polls — even government polls such as the Youth Risk Behavior Survey — that they are LGBT?

What if "being LGBT" is more an expression of "support of LGBTs" or an attempt to "avoid being canceled" than a report of one’s personal sexual behavior? Declaring "I’m non-binary" enables one to get some of the same attention transgenders achieve, but without any of the pain. Such a declaration does not mean you will eagerly be jumping onto the next operating table. "Being LGBT" does not mean you have to do anything sexual. You can "be" bisexual and "just stick to the opposite sex."

This possibility must be considered because, as Eric Kaufmann (2022) found, those “under 30 who reported a sexual partner in the last five years dropped from around 96% exclusively heterosexual in the 1990s to 92% exclusively heterosexual in 2021.” That is, for the ~85% who reported a sexual partner, only 8% of these younger adults indicated their partner was of the same sex. A lot of today’s "bisexuals" might be mostly, or maybe completely, heterosexual, but are able to keep liberals off their case, get preferential treatment, etc. without altering anything but a self-ascribed label. We "know" what people choose to tell us, but if they "enhance" their sexual resume, how would anyone know?!

The typical discouraging findings of sexuality polls, including that LGBTs claim more personal malaise, cause more trouble, and contribute less to society, also appeared in the Canadian and British censuses:

  • An eighth of Canadian homosexual couples had children living with them compared to about half of traditional couples (jibing with poll after poll indicating homosexuals have far fewer children).

  • LGBT Canadians more frequently reported their mental health to be poor or fair compared to non-LGBTs (32% vs. 11%), again suggesting that heterosexual desires or activities, for all their faults, are better than homosexual ones.

  • LGBTs were also more likely to say they had seriously contemplated suicide in their lifetimes (40% vs. 15%) and to report having been diagnosed with a mood or anxiety disorder (41% vs. 16%).

On and on, the same differences echoed within the British results. Thus, while the two censuses replicated the same general pattern of differences between LGBTs and heterosexuals regularly reported by private, high rejection-rate polls, many fewer homosexuals were counted – half to a third as many! Still, as with private surveys, those under age 30 in these censuses were considerably more apt than older respondents to claim to be homosexual

(~7%). So, it would appear that youth ARE being converted to homosexuality, along with their greater willingness to claim that they "are" LGBT.

Many doctors and nurses “have been bullied into demonstrating their loyalty to diversity, equity, and inclusion to preserve their careers and reputations — and have been punished when they refused to do so” (Downey 2023). Since their grades, graduation, and social life depend on at least verbal conformity to these three pillars of contemporary liberalism in most schools, there are similar pressures on students. Many of them are saying they are LGBT. As what people hear themselves say strongly influences what they ultimately believe, it would be natural for many college students to become LGBT and/or liberal.

4. Liberal Ideology and LGBT Go Hand-in-Hand

Eric Kaufmann (2022) makes two important observations from the private, high rejection-rate polls:

  1. the “most liberal respondents have moved from 10-15% non-heterosexual identification in 2016 to 33% in 2021” – LGBTism is a very rapidly growing "faith" among youth. He notes that about half of students majoring in racial or gender studies, about 40% of liberal arts majors, and a quarter of all college students now claim to be LGBT.

  2. Among young people “mental health problems, liberal ideology, and LGBT identity are strongly correlated” [and] “very liberal ideology and LGBT identification are associated with anxiety and depression.”

It is hard to know how much adopting LGBTism "causes" mental health problems as opposed to those with mental health problems being more susceptible to the LGBT worldview. But considerable clinical literature suggests that those considering the trans lifestyle are much more apt to have ADHD, or autism — as well as other characteristics currently labeled as "disturbed." The stress associated with rejecting traditional male/female relations leading to marriage and children is significant. Most poll results, including those from the two censuses, do not support the claims of mental health professional associations that LGBTs are "normal."

The Canadian and British censuses registered far fewer transgenders, reinforcing Kaufmann’s belief that transsexualism is starting to shrink, instead of continuing to increase. Indeed, as more dissenters to the professional assertion that sex can be changed have got-ten media coverage, the fraction of youth claiming transgender status in recent polls has declined. The British census asked: “is the gender you identify with the same as your sex registered at birth?” only 0.5% said "no," 92.5% said yes, and 6% didn’t answer. Similarly, only 0.33% reported being transgender in the Canadian census.

5. Conclusion

Such rapid reversal of what looked like a burgeoning trend, "proven" in substantial part by media reports from private high rejection-rate surveys, offers some hope toward reversing the rapid growth of homosexuality. The U.S. has still not released its full 2020 census results, but while there are cultural differences between the three countries, the ~4% non-heterosexual and half a percent transgender from Canada and Britain make it unlikely that the U.S. results will differ much. Recent state laws against the mutilation of children and more media attention to dissenters from its ideology may be turning the transgender tidal wave.

This new evidence that homosexuality is not converting youth as rapidly, even as the claims of "being LGBT" continue to rise, and that transgenders may have already peaked in popularity, should bolster traditionalist hopes of restoring some sort of sexual sanity to the West. While the sexual reality does not appear to be as bad as it seemed before the new censuses were published, Western birthrates continue to decline. If the birth dearth continues, no matter what our success in stopping the LGBT movement, our society will struggle to survive.

6. References

© Paul Cameron


The views expressed by RenewAmerica columnists are their own and do not necessarily reflect the position of RenewAmerica or its affiliates.
(See RenewAmerica's publishing standards.)

Paul Cameron

Dr. Paul Cameron was the first scientist to document the harmful health effects of second-hand tobacco smoke. He has published extensively on LGBT issues in refereed scientific journals. In 1978 he predicted that equal treatment of homosexuality and heterosexuality would strongly favor growing homosexuality and shrinking heterosexuality. His prediction is coming true.


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