Michael Gaynor
Trump triumphant, Kasich and Cruz lose
By Michael Gaynor
Will the Republican establishment help make America great again with Trump or make America wait again?
In "Krauthammer's Personal Disdain for Trump Skewed His View of Wisconsin Primary Results a Bit" (http://www.webcommentary.com/php/ShowArticle.php?id=gaynorm&date=160409),
I wrote:
"No, 'Cruz's 13-point victory' is NOT 'crushing.'
"It seemed from the early returns that Cruz might have a 23-point victory, but that was not to be.
"Krauthammer acknowledges that Trump 'managed to get a full 35' and then explained why that was stunning:
'He was opposed by a very popular GOP governor (80 percent approval among Republicans) with a powerful state organization honed by winning three campaigns within four years (two gubernatorial, one recall). He was opposed by popular, local, well-informed radio talk-show hosts whose tough interviews left him in shambles. Tons of money was dumped into negative ads not just from the Cruz campaign and the pro-Cruz super PACs but from two anti-Trump super PACs as well.
'And if that doesn't leave a candidate flattened, consider that Trump was coming off two weeks of grievous self-inflicted wounds – and still got more than a third of the vote. Which definitively vindicated Trump's boast that if he ever went out in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shot someone (most likely because his Twitter went down – he'd be apprehended in his pajamas), he wouldn't lose any voters.'
"Hyperbole aside, the key facts are:
1. Cruz got 48% of the Wisconsin Republican primary vote, 4% more than he got in his adopted home state, Texas, which he currently represents in the United States Senate.
2. Trump got 35% of the Wisconsin Republican primary vote, 8% more than he got in the Texas Republican primary, and Wisconsin borders on Canada, where Cruz was born.
"Krauthammer says that '[t]he question for Trump has always been how far he could reach beyond his solid core.'
"On April 19, we'll find out when the results of the New York Republican presidential primary come in.
Predictions:
1. Trump will do what Cruz failed to do in Texas – win a majority in his home state.
2. John Kasich, who has lost ever contest except in his home state (Ohio), will beat Cruz.
3. Cruz will be hard pressed to win 20% of the vote.
4. Trump's victory over Kasich will be "crushing" or "flattening."
5. Trump's victory over Cruz will be pulverizing.
"In Wisconsin, Cruz got about a third more votes than Trump got. In New York, Trump will get in the range of three times as many votes as Cruz will get."
I was right about the respective trajectories, but I underestimated Trump and overestimated Cruz.
Trump won with a supermajority, more than 60%.
Cruz did not even win 15% of the vote, so Trump won more than four times as many votes as Cruz won.
Had the Republican primary been "open" to Independents and Democrats, Trump would have done even better and Cruz would have done even worse.
In New York, Trump won at least 89 delegates, Kasich won at least 3 and 3 are undecided, but none of them were wwon by Cruz.
It's clear that Americans want the 2016 presidential election to be The Hillary versus The Donald and Senators Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz and Governor Kasich should accept political reality instead of continue running futile races.
Trump is the only Republican presidential aspirant who can be competitive in New York and Pennsylvania and he will need support in the United States Senate, so I have this suggestion: Kasich acknowledges that he's unsuitable as a Vice President, so Trump should turn to one of his two rivals who joined him to raise funds for veterans earlier this year – Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania – and Club for Growth and its favorite Senator, Pat Toomey, up for reelection this year, should join the plurality, if not quite the majority, of Pennsylvania Republicans, in supporting Trump instead of trying to thwart the will of the people.
Trump/Santorum could carry Pennsylvania AND reelect Toomey (unlike Cruz and anyone).
Trump/Santorum can make New Hampshire and New York competitive and reelect Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire and elect Wendy Long in New York.
Don't Senators McCain and Graham want Ayotte to stay in the Senate?
For heaven's sake, much too much is at stake.
It's time to put America first.
Will the Republican establishment help make America great again with Trump or make America wait again?
© Michael Gaynor
April 20, 2016
Will the Republican establishment help make America great again with Trump or make America wait again?
In "Krauthammer's Personal Disdain for Trump Skewed His View of Wisconsin Primary Results a Bit" (http://www.webcommentary.com/php/ShowArticle.php?id=gaynorm&date=160409),
I wrote:
"No, 'Cruz's 13-point victory' is NOT 'crushing.'
"It seemed from the early returns that Cruz might have a 23-point victory, but that was not to be.
"Krauthammer acknowledges that Trump 'managed to get a full 35' and then explained why that was stunning:
'He was opposed by a very popular GOP governor (80 percent approval among Republicans) with a powerful state organization honed by winning three campaigns within four years (two gubernatorial, one recall). He was opposed by popular, local, well-informed radio talk-show hosts whose tough interviews left him in shambles. Tons of money was dumped into negative ads not just from the Cruz campaign and the pro-Cruz super PACs but from two anti-Trump super PACs as well.
'And if that doesn't leave a candidate flattened, consider that Trump was coming off two weeks of grievous self-inflicted wounds – and still got more than a third of the vote. Which definitively vindicated Trump's boast that if he ever went out in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shot someone (most likely because his Twitter went down – he'd be apprehended in his pajamas), he wouldn't lose any voters.'
"Hyperbole aside, the key facts are:
1. Cruz got 48% of the Wisconsin Republican primary vote, 4% more than he got in his adopted home state, Texas, which he currently represents in the United States Senate.
2. Trump got 35% of the Wisconsin Republican primary vote, 8% more than he got in the Texas Republican primary, and Wisconsin borders on Canada, where Cruz was born.
"Krauthammer says that '[t]he question for Trump has always been how far he could reach beyond his solid core.'
"On April 19, we'll find out when the results of the New York Republican presidential primary come in.
Predictions:
1. Trump will do what Cruz failed to do in Texas – win a majority in his home state.
2. John Kasich, who has lost ever contest except in his home state (Ohio), will beat Cruz.
3. Cruz will be hard pressed to win 20% of the vote.
4. Trump's victory over Kasich will be "crushing" or "flattening."
5. Trump's victory over Cruz will be pulverizing.
"In Wisconsin, Cruz got about a third more votes than Trump got. In New York, Trump will get in the range of three times as many votes as Cruz will get."
I was right about the respective trajectories, but I underestimated Trump and overestimated Cruz.
Trump won with a supermajority, more than 60%.
Cruz did not even win 15% of the vote, so Trump won more than four times as many votes as Cruz won.
Had the Republican primary been "open" to Independents and Democrats, Trump would have done even better and Cruz would have done even worse.
In New York, Trump won at least 89 delegates, Kasich won at least 3 and 3 are undecided, but none of them were wwon by Cruz.
It's clear that Americans want the 2016 presidential election to be The Hillary versus The Donald and Senators Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz and Governor Kasich should accept political reality instead of continue running futile races.
Trump is the only Republican presidential aspirant who can be competitive in New York and Pennsylvania and he will need support in the United States Senate, so I have this suggestion: Kasich acknowledges that he's unsuitable as a Vice President, so Trump should turn to one of his two rivals who joined him to raise funds for veterans earlier this year – Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania – and Club for Growth and its favorite Senator, Pat Toomey, up for reelection this year, should join the plurality, if not quite the majority, of Pennsylvania Republicans, in supporting Trump instead of trying to thwart the will of the people.
Trump/Santorum could carry Pennsylvania AND reelect Toomey (unlike Cruz and anyone).
Trump/Santorum can make New Hampshire and New York competitive and reelect Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire and elect Wendy Long in New York.
Don't Senators McCain and Graham want Ayotte to stay in the Senate?
For heaven's sake, much too much is at stake.
It's time to put America first.
Will the Republican establishment help make America great again with Trump or make America wait again?
© Michael Gaynor
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